COLUMBUS, Wis., Dec. 04, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Michael S. Eisenga, CEO of First American Properties, today released a detailed statement addressing rising stress signals across the U.S. housing market and broader economy. Drawing on recent industry data, Eisenga cautioned that the current trajectory shows early similarities to pre–Global Financial Crisis (GFC) conditions, despite foreclosure levels still sitting well below long-term averages.
According to October data, foreclosure starts rose 6% month-over-month and 20% year-over-year, while completed foreclosures increased 32% compared to the same time last year. States leading the nation in overall foreclosure filings include Florida, South Carolina, and Illinois.
“While today only 0.5% of U.S. homes are in foreclosure, still far below the historical norm of 1% to 1.5%—the trajectory we are following mirrors the pattern that emerged just before the GFC,” Eisenga said, “However, just imagine the effects on the market when this number normalizes or gets near the 4% seen during the GFC”.
Additional indicators reinforce the growing pressure. FHA delinquencies have climbed to 11.5%, accounting for 52% of all nationwide delinquencies. Meanwhile, Zillow reports that 53% of U.S. homes lost value in the past year, the highest share since 2012.
Labor market signals are also showing strain. According to ADP payroll data, the U.S. lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, with small businesses alone shedding 120,000 positions. ADP who tracks 26 million jobs, reported that private payrolls have declined four times in the past six months. With no BLS report released due to the federal shutdown, the ADP data serves as one of the few available indicators.
“Unemployment is on its way up,” Eisenga explained, citing continued contraction in both manufacturing and service-sector indexes. “Inventories are rising, backorders are falling, these are textbook signs of additional unemployment in the coming months.”
Despite these pressures, many traditional housing metrics remain elevated near record levels. The debt-to-income ratio required to purchase a median-priced home is now higher than during the GFC. The mortgage-payment-to-rent gap has widened to historic extremes, and used home prices have climbed above the cost of new construction, an inversion rarely seen in healthy market conditions.
“The bubble has finally burst in the housing market, a phenomenon I have been watching unfold for several months now,” Eisenga stated. He cited several contributing factors: the fading influence of COVID-era stimulus, demand pulled forward by tariff concerns, the end of foreclosure moratoriums, and the resumption of student loan payments. “Combine those forces with a job market on the brink, and you have the ingredients for a full collapse in home prices that will accelerate for the foreseeable future.”
Eisenga forecasts a national median home price decline of at least 30% over the next 24 to 36 months.
“Real estate markets are inherently local,” he added. “While I expect a substantial national correction, individual market outcomes may vary significantly. Whether you are a buyer or a seller, research your local conditions carefully.”
Media Contact:
First American Properties
Michael Eisenga, CEO
meisenga@firstamericanusa.com
(920) 350-5754
About First American Properties
First American Properties is a privately held investment and real estate management firm headquartered in Columbus, Wisconsin. The firm specializes in strategic asset acquisition, development, and portfolio management across diverse sectors of the U.S. economy.
Disclaimer: This press release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties.
